Italian fans were in full voice before facing Croatia on Thursday in Poznan, Poland. But the 1-1 result left their team in a precarious position at Euro 2012.
WARSAW—Immediately after their team’s draw with Croatia on Thursday, the Italian press was huddled together in conference, muttering about the biscotto to come.
No national media is more conspiracy-minded than the Italian. Given the regular match-fixing scandals that roil that country, with very good reason.
The biscotto — a twice-baked cookie — refers to an agreement between two teams that torpedoes the hopes of a third.
The Italians are half-convinced that their competitors in Group C — Spain and Croatia — are wordlessly concocting a plan that would have them draw in their final game together, scuppering Italy’s hopes regardless of how badly they beat up on the tournament’s whipping boy, Ireland.
“Due a due,” the Italians grumbled — “Two to two.” That’s the fatal result. It’s also a number embedded into the sizable grudge-tallying portion of the Italian subconscious after Sweden and Denmark arrived at it eight years ago in an identical scenario, undoing Italy.
“Having been burned once before, we are entitled to be fearful,” one of those mutterers muttered in Corrierre della Sera on Friday.
This is every degenerate gambler’s dream — the fix you’re in on. Please allow the women and children to enter the bookmakers’ first. We don’t need any twisted ankles in the rush.
It’s bad enough that Italian keeper Gianluigi Buffon has resorted to simultaneous ass-patting and red-cape waving in order to undo the nascent Ibero-Adriatic alliance.
“It’s different to the Sweden-Denmark case, because Spain are better than Croatia, not at the same level,” he said, looking down every once in a while at his copy of On War.
If the Italians are worried, they’re right. They shouldn’t be the only ones.
Thanks to the tightness of all four groups and UEFA’s Byzantine set of tie-breaking rules, the quarter-final permutations here are algebraic. The irony — many of us failed algebra because we devoted large, important parts of our cerebral cortex to sports.
Only two teams have been eliminated — Sweden and big-time European football’s kid brother, Ireland. The other 14 are still in the mix. None of those 14 has yet secured advancement.
After a week, we’ve boiled this tournament down to its essence — a one-game elimination from now until the end.
In Group A, Russia needs to beat Greece who can still advance if they thump Russia, providing the Czechs and Poles don’t draw. The Greeks, Russians and Czechs may still end up tied on points, and funneled into UEFA’s playoff-o-matic. The Poles can put away their slide rules. If they win, they advance.
Group B is even more ridiculous. Germany has won two of two and can go out. Holland has lost both their games and can still advance. Portugal and Denmark are trapped in between, the Purgatorio portion of the bracket. There are easily arrived at scenarios in which three teams can end up tied for first (Germany, Portugal, Denmark) or second (Holland, Denmark, Portugal).
Group C — the let’s-shortsheet-Italy group — you know about.
Friday, an angry God decided to delay matters in Ukraine-France while he did a lot of tongue-between-the-teeth math in the margins of the Group D side of his fantasy pool. It didn’t help. Even the All Knowing has problems with Excel spreadsheets.
If tiebreakers are needed, there are several bad options beyond the numeric — immediate post-game shootouts, rankings based on Fair Play points or the drawing of lots (Option H). It likely won’t come to that.
Nevertheless, it harkens back to the 1968 iteration of the tournament, when the Soviets were eliminated from the final by a coin flip after a game with Italy that ended in a draw. Those were simpler, stupider times.
Since then, things have gotten increasingly complicated, less comprehensible and far more fraught. If America suffers from the paranoid style in politics, Europe generally manages to contain it to football.
Now we draw closer to the psychological edge, where teams are forced to calculate rather than just play, and supporters are happy to be there doubting them however they manage it.
There will be at least one point in the next four days at which the whole thing is shifted onto the narrow shoulders of one player or — more likely — one referee.
As the Italians will tell you from experience, it’s unfair. But that’s why it’s fun to watch on TV.
No comments:
Post a Comment